Travel and Expense
From Forecast to Fact: How SAP Concur Predictions for Business Travel, Finance, and AI Are Playing Out in 2025
At the start of 2025, SAP Concur leaders laid out their vision for what this year would bring for business travel and finance leaders. Now, with more than half of 2025 behind us, we can look back at those predictions and ask: how accurate were they?
Here’s a look at what was predicted, what actually happened, and where the gaps emerged.
Prediction #1: Slowing Inflation Will Increase Travel Opportunity
Post-pandemic inflation beginning in 2023 drove higher spending in 2024. (Note: 2024 Concur Expense data showed domestic air travel volume for business trips was up 3%; international travel volume increased nearly 6%; and the total number of expense transactions increased 13% year over year.)
As a result, we predicted that as inflation slowed throughout 2025, many leaders would expect their T&E budgets—even if flat year over year—to go further in 2025.
What actually happened:
Concur Expense data is showing that the average transaction amount has remained flat, or even slightly decreased, in nearly every expense category so far this year. In addition, the SAP Concur 7th Annual Global Business Travel Survey revealed that despite persistent economic uncertainty, geopolitical unrest, and the uptick in virtual meetings, companies foresee business travel budgets going up or staying the same. A strong majority expect budgets to grow or remain stable: 89% of business travelers, 93% of travel managers, and 90% of CFOs report no planned cuts to travel budgets. These trends may indicate that T&E budgets aren’t being squeezed by inflation like they were last year.
Looking ahead, prices are set to stabilize further over the next 18 months, according to the latest edition of the annual Global Business Travel Forecast from CWT and the Global Business Travel Association.
“This year’s forecast shows encouraging signs that business travel pricing is normalizing further – and that’s creating real opportunities for corporate travel buyers,” said Patrick Andersen, Chief Executive Officer, CWT. “While economic uncertainty hasn’t gone away, corporate travel buyers are regaining leverage and have more room to optimize their programs…With the right approach, organizations can stretch their travel budgets further and deliver even greater returns.”
See the full forecast here.
Prediction #2: Early caution will bolster greater trust in generative AI for travel
Going into 2025, SAP Concur anticipated a year of “healthy skepticism” around generative AI. We predicted business travelers would embrace AI as a helpful assistant—offering recommendations or flagging anomalies—but may not trust it to book trips or submit expenses.
What actually happened:
The skepticism of AI for business travel and expense management continues to fade. According to our 2025 CFO Insights survey, finance departments have embraced AI to drive automation in the following ways:
- Over half (57%) say general finance tasks like generating emails, transcription, and summarizing documents are highly automated by AI, compared to only 7% in 2024.
- Other areas where CFOs report significant automation include creating new pricing models, which jumped from 5% to 22%, and fraud monitoring, which rose from 28% to 45%.
Our 7th Annual Global Business Travel Research Report also found that among travel managers, the mood towards AI has clearly warmed. Just a year ago, nearly a third (32%) felt that booking business travel required a human touch AI could not replicate. This year, that number has dropped to 24%.
And from the traveler point of view? Nearly nine in 10 business travelers globally (88%) say they’d be comfortable using AI-powered automation for some elements of business travel, like booking, re-booking, or managing expenses. But they’re still approaching AI with a healthy dose of caution. To increase their comfort level with using AI, business travelers are still seeking:
- Assurance that personal data will be robustly protected (45%).
- Training on how to use AI tools (39%).
- Guarantees against algorithmic bias (36%).
Dive deeper into the findings around business travel AI sentiment here.
7th Annual Global Business Survey
Take a deeper dive into the findings of the SAP Concur 7th Annual Global Business Travel Survey.
Find HerePrediction #3: Finance Leaders Will Collaborate Across the C-Suite to Implement Emerging Technology
SAP Concur leaders anticipated that 2025 would see more cross-functional collaboration between finance, IT, and HR executives to drive innovation, manage risk, and lead ESG initiatives. Security and privacy would remain top concerns, especially as organizations embraced hybrid work models and increased travel.
What actually happened:
Finance is indeed stepping up when it comes to cross-functional collaboration. Our CFO Insights survey found:
- 96% of CFOs rate themselves as excellent or good at securing cross-functional buy-in.
- 89% of HR leaders and 88% of IT leaders agree that finance leaders are strong communicators.
- 60% of finance leaders rank cybersecurity as a top investment priority.
- 48% of CFOs are focusing on sustainability and ESG initiatives to drive growth, an increase from 30% in 2024.
However, there’s still room to grow when it comes to CFO collaboration:
- Only 9% of CFOs believe growth leadership should be shared across the C-suite.
- Just 20% of CFOs plan to enhance collaboration with IT on cybersecurity initiatives, despite 59% increasing budgets in that area, highlighting a gap between integration and execution.
- 54% of IT leaders would like to see finance leaders improve their collaboration efforts on digital transformation.
- 57% of HR leaders say the biggest blocker to collaboration is insufficient data sharing and transparency.
Collaboration is certainly happening—but change doesn’t happen overnight. Finance leaders must continue to prioritize bridging the gaps between their teams and key stakeholders in other areas of the business to drive alignment and support growth.
Read more on CFO-CIO collaboration and CFO-CHRO collaboration.
Prediction #4: TMC Consolidation to Continue, While Airlines and Travelers Reap the Benefits of NDC
Our experts expected Travel Management Company (TMC) consolidation to continue in 2025, with airlines seeing benefits from NDC (New Distribution Capability) such as personalization, bundling, continuous pricing, and savings. While concerns around content fragmentation would likely linger, we predicted the frenzy may die down a bit. We also thought the increase in hybrid work models might reduce blended work/leisure, or “bleisure,” trips.
What actually happened:
TMC consolidation continues to accelerate, with major mergers like Amex GBT and CWT moving forward. NDC is slowly but surely gaining traction, although challenges persist with integration. Content fragmentation remains a significant hurdle, as well. According to Sabre, 91% of agencies operate with four or more booking systems, and more than half manage seven or more.
Contrary to our prediction, however, blended travel, or bleisure, remains popular, especially among millennial and Gen Z employees who value flexibility. Although a quarter of business travelers say their company has cut back on allowing employees to add personal travel to a business trip, 27% say they have recently started doing this to save on personal travel costs, according to the 7th Annual Global Business Travel Research Report. This trend suggests that bleisure trips remain a popular way to use business travel to subsidize sightseeing or a family visit.
Learn how to tackle the challenges of content fragmentation and NDC adoption.
Final Thoughts
As we hurdle towards the end of 2025, it’s clear that many of the predictions made by SAP Concur leaders have materialized. Inflation has eased, unlocking new opportunities for business travel programs to deliver greater value. Generative AI has shifted from skepticism to strategic adoption, transforming how finance and business travel teams operate. Cross-functional collaboration is gaining momentum, though gaps in execution and integration remain. And while TMC consolidation and NDC adoption are progressing, content fragmentation and the enduring popularity of bleisure travel remind us that change in this industry is rarely linear.
What’s the takeaway? The overarching theme of our original 2025 predictions has held firm: interconnectivity is no longer optional. In a year defined by rapid change, we’ve learned that accurate forecasting isn’t just about predicting trends; it’s about preparing organizations to adapt, evolve, and lead through them by building systems, relationships, and technologies that are deeply interconnected and resilient.
Contact us to explore how SAP Concur solutions can help boost adaptability and agility in your organization.
